perm filename CHAP2.ART[ESS,JMC]1 blob sn#005536 filedate 1971-11-08 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
00100	              IS THERE ANYTHING USEFUL LEFT TO INVENT?
00200	
00300	
00400		There is a widespread idea that the possibility of  improving
00500	human  life  qualitatively  by  invention has been exhausted.     For
00600	example, Dennis Gabor,  the  inventor  of  holography,  in  his  book
00700	"Innovations,  Scientific,  Technological,  and  Social"  says  as  a
00800	preface to his list of future innovations, "In fact, the  list  below
00900	consists   almost   exclusively   of   improvements,  not  the  first
01000	fulfillments of archetypal wishes such as the first telephone or  the
01100	first  flying  machine  was.    This is due not merely to the lack of
01200	imagination of  the  author  and  his  sources,  but  mainly  to  the
01300	exhaustion of primitive desires by past inventions. There remain some
01400	primitive wishes such as ESP (Extra-sensory  perception,  for  direct
01500	communication  from  mind  to  mind), telekinetics (moving objects by
01600	wishing), the time machine, antigravitics, and  super-photonic  speed
01700	(breaking  through  the  light  velocity barrier), but on all present
01800	evidence these will remain in science fiction - until even SF becomes
01900	tired of them."
02000	
02100		I  expect  to show in this article that Gabor and his sources
02200	do lack imagination, and that  there  is  plenty  of  new  technology
02300	possible that will make qualitative improvements in people's lives of
02400	at least the same magnitude as those of the  last  100  years.    The
02500	contrary  impression  comes  from  the  fact  that  simple mechanical
02600	invention unassisted by computing exhausted its easy possibilities in
02700	the  1920's.       Subsequent  inventions  have  been harder and more
02800	expensive, and some  problems  have  been  unsolvable  to  mechanical
02900	invention.    However,  recent developments in science and technology
03000	provide a solid basis for a new wave of  inventions  that  will  meet
03100	real human needs and desires.
03200	
03300	               WHAT HUMAN NEEDS MIGHT INVENTION MEET?
03400	
03500		1. Everyone would like to be assured of a comfortable  income
03600	independent  of  whether he can or wants to work.  The country is too
03700	poor now to assure this.  The  presently  defined  poverty  level  of
03800	$3400  per family is about 1/3 the average income of $10000 and it is
03900	too low for comfort.  Perhaps $5000 might be enough, but  this  could
04000	not be offered independent of working because present society depends
04100	on the work of too many people whose incomes are so  low  that  $5000
04200	without working would seem better.  If we had an average of $25000 at
04300	present prices, we could afford $5000 without work.      To  do  this
04400	requires cost reduction in service industries because the non-workers
04500	would require more services than the rest of society would be willing
04600	to supply.
04700	
04800		The benefit of an assured income would be that a person could
04900	take his time about choosing a career, people who cannot  stand  jobs
05000	would not be driven to hustling and crime, and there would be a limit
05100	to the unattractiveness of the jobs people could be got to do.
05200	
05300		2. Reduction of housework below the irritation level.     The
05400	reduction of housework by mechanical inventions has made possible the
05500	nuclear family and the independent living of single people.    People
05600	who  can't  get  along  with  each  other  can  now live apart.  As a
05700	believer in human freedom, I count this good.     Nevertheless,  when
05800	people  live  together, housework produces stresses as anyone who has
05900	lived in a commune will tell you.  The currently fashionable solution
06000	to this problem is for women to devote their lives to housework. Some
06100	of them would rather not do so.
06200	
06300		3. Reduction of the age of achieving independence.    Present
06400	society  is  based on keeping people under rather close discipline by
06500	parents and school until the age of 18.  Lesser strings  bind  people
06600	for  several  years  more.    It may be possible to reduce the age of
06700	independence eventually to 15 without adverse effects.    An  obvious
06800	requirement  for  this is either to shorten the 12 years of school or
06900	make it more attractive.  Another  is  simply  the  wealth  to  allow
07000	people to set up house younger.
07100	
07200		4. Assurance of a socially useful job using one's talents.
07300	
07400		5. The ability to obtain an object when one wants it.  Thus I
07500	can't get a new chess set here at the lab in the next two minutes  at
07600	2:30AM. I don't agree that it is unreasonable of me to want it.
07700	
07800		6.      The  ability to get one of a technically feasible new
07900	object without someone deciding to mass produce it.  Thus I can't get
08000	a  temperature controlled suit I have invented, and it would be quite
08100	expensive to get a hi-fi cabinet built to my specifications.
08200	
08300		7. The ability to get information quickly.  I could have  put
08400	one  of  my  previous points more cogently if I could have got income
08500	statistics on demand.
08600	
08700		8. The ability to change government policy if I have  a  good
08800	idea.    I cannot find the precise rationale of the present policy, I
08900	can't objectively determine the effects of the alternate policy,  and
09000	I  have no way of getting the authorities to pay attention to my idea
09100	even if it is a good one.  Yes, Virginia, technology  can  even  help
09200	with this.
09300	
09400		9.    Children should be able to wander anywhere they want in
09500	perfect safety and retrievability.
09600	
09700		10. We should be able to rebuild cities and  families  should
09800	be  able  to rebuild their dwellings when they no longer meet current
09900	needs.
10000	
10100		I hope the reader will agree that these are non-trivial human
10200	wants  and  that  our  society  would  be  qualitatively  changed  by
10300	realizing them. The list is certainly not exhaustive, and  you  could
10400	probably  persuade me that some I have not thought of are amenable to
10500	technological solution and more important than some of the above.   I
10600	have  not  included avoiding any kind of disasters in the above list,
10700	because that is a another subject.
10800	
10900	                   HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE?
11000	
11100		The  technological  innovations  discussed  below  are not in
11200	one-to-one correspondence with the above needs, i.e. there is not one
11300	gadget  for each problem.  This is because the innovations have to be
11400	looked at from the point of view of opportunity rather than need.  In
11500	fact,  we must work back and forth between problems, scientific laws,
11600	products, and systems.
11700	
11800	
11900		1.    Inventions  that  merely  increase  the productivity of
12000	present activities  are  still  very  important.      Thus,  although
12100	agriculture  now occupies only 5 percent of workers, they work harder
12200	than average; to give them good working conditions without increasing
12300	their   number   will  require  a  large  increase  in  productivity.
12400	Productivity of industrial labor has been the  traditional  focus  of
12500	much  engineering  effort, although for historical reasons it has not
12600	been the subject of much academic engineering effort.    Research  in
12700	improving  industrial productivity has been carried out by individual
12800	producers for their own benefit and by  makers  of  machinery.   This
12900	needs to be changed.
13000	
13100		2.  If the costs of construction could be reduced by a factor
13200	of three, we could rebuild our cities,  and  families  could  rebuild
13300	their  houses.   Productivity in construction has increased much more
13400	slowly than in manufacturing largely because buildings really have to
13500	be  different from each other.  Computers make it possible to go from
13600	the architects computer prepared plans for a  building  automatically
13700	to  an automatic fabrication machine that makes sub-assemblies of the
13800	building and also to a "Heathkit" manual  for  putting  the  building
13900	together.   Construction is another area in which the development has
14000	been done almost entirely by machine sellers and in  connection  with
14100	particular projects.  This situation is changing now that HUD has the
14200	beginnings of a research and development program.   The  construction
14300	robot is also a possibility in the next twenty years.
14400	
14500		3.     The  biggest  area  for increase in productivity is in
14600	services. Think of all those tall buildings in San Francisco and  New
14700	York  full of people passing each other papers.  What do they all do?
14800	Is it  really  necessary,  and  can't  most  of  it  be  replaced  by
14900	computers?   I certainly have no clear picture of the office industry
15000	as a whole, but it is clear that almost  all  the  work  involved  in
15100	inter-firm  transactions  can  be  done  computer-to-computer without
15200	human labor.
15300	
15400		4. Whenever, it is proposed  to  increase  productivity,  the
15500	question  of  unemployment  arises.    The hard-boiled answer is that
15600	increases in productivity are always eventually absorbed in either an
15700	increase  in  goods  and  services  or  in  an  increase  in leisure.
15800	Certainly, more than a ten-fold increase in productivity has  already
15900	been  absorbed  in  this  country. This answer is inadequate, because
16000	even  temporary  unemployment  produces  considerable  suffering  and
16100	anxiety  even  when  the  direct  hardship  is  mitigated.  There are
16200	several policies that might contribute to a solution.  In  the  first
16300	place,  part  of  the  cost of the conversion of an industry to a new
16400	technology that uses less labor is the readjustment of the  displaced
16500	workers.    The industry should buy the jobs at a price that reflects
16600	the age and length  of  service  of  the  worker,  the  re-employment
16700	opportunities,  and the bargaining strengths of the parties.  For new
16800	workers, the government should see to it that there is an  excess  of
16900	jobs  in  each  major  area of qualifications.  Part of such a scheme
17000	might be government financing  of  inventories  as  is  practiced  in
17100	agriculture as a means of smoothing out fluctuations.  Certainly, the
17200	government must do more than simply juggle the money supply  and  the
17300	interest  rate  or even control wages and prices.  All this is out of
17400	my line as a technologist,  but  somebody  has  to  demand  that  the
17500	economists make their contribution too.
17600	
17700		5.  A major possibility is an automatic delivery system.  The
17800	idea of such a system has been around for close  to  100  years,  but
17900	every  generation  has  to examine its economic feasibility.  I don't
18000	know whether it is feasible yet, but there is a  good  chance  of  it
18100	especially  in  connection with computer technology and reductions in
18200	construction costs.
18300	
18400		Imagine the following:  When you  subscribe  to  the  service
18500	workmen  arrive  and cut a hole in the wall under or next to a window
18600	and install a delivery port of the size you have agreed to  pay  for.
18700	On  the  outside wall of the building is installed a rail or possibly
18800	just a set of "handholds" which lead to a hole in the ground with  an
18900	eight foot shield around it and a rain lid on top.  The hole leads to
19000	a passage under the street  with  a  rail  attached  to  its  ceiling
19100	attached  to  which  carriers  of  different sizes can ride. When the
19200	appropriate numbers are dialed, checks are made by a computer for the
19300	sending  and  receiving  ports not being full, a carrier comes to the
19400	sending port, is loaded, proceeds through the system, arrives at  the
19500	receiving  port  and  waits  to  be  unloaded. The carrier is powered
19600	through the rail while under the street and is battery powered  while
19700	climbing  the building.  This may not be the best scheme, but it will
19800	probably work.  Whether it is  economically  feasible  now,  I  don't
19900	know.
20000	
20100		In connection with home computer consoles and automated money
20200	transfer, this will save great amounts  of  labor  and  will  provide
20300	great direct benefits, for example: it will deliver the mail, it will
20400	permit the purchase of an article and its delivery in minutes at  any
20500	time  of  the  day  or  night,  it  will take the trash away, it will
20600	obviate the need to own many articles because they will be obtainable
20700	for  rent  in  minutes,  it will take objects away to be stored until
20800	wanted again, and it will enable people to share things they  own  in
20900	common.
21000	
21100		6.     Computer  control  of  cars  will  have  the following
21200	advantages: accidents will be reduced by at  least  a  factor  of  10
21300	before computer control of cars will even be acceptable; children and
21400	old people will not be dependent on others to drive them since  skill
21500	will  not  be  required;  the  capacity  of  highway  systems will be
21600	increased without new construction, because cars will be able  to  go
21700	bumper  to bumper on Bayshore at 80 miles per hour without danger; it
21800	will be possible to have the car  park  itself  and  come  back  when
21900	required; and it will be possible to send a car on an errand.
22000	
22100		7.    Computer  control  of manufacturing processes will make
22200	possible the economical construction of unique objects even going  as
22300	far  as  a  car  built  to  individual specifications.  Machine tools
22400	controlled by computer prepared tapes have already reduced  the  cost
22500	of  one-of-a-kind  machining.     Computer  aided  design  will  make
22600	economical the design of a one-of-a-kind object with  assurance  that
22700	the  object  will  serve its purpose without extensive testing. First
22800	steps have already been made in this direction.
22900	
23000		8. Surveillance of streets by TV cameras that store what they
23100	see  and  make  it  viewable  only  in  case of trouble will make the
23200	streets safe.  (The problem at present is not so  much  that  walking
23300	the  streets reduces one's life expectancy, but that fear of robbers,
23400	muggers, and sex criminals reduces the freedom  of  women,  children,
23500	and  many  men.)  Elimination of money will eliminate much crime.  (A
23600	robber will have to demand that his victim transfer $1,000 to account
23700	558304793!) Crime prevention technology must be implemented in such a
23800	way that civil rights are increased rather than reduced.   Thus,  the
23900	convenience of the police cannot be the only criterion.
24000	
24100		9.    The home computer console makes possible an information
24200	system with the following possibilities: all published matter in  the
24300	world  is  immediately accessible; anyone can publish anything simply
24400	by declaring it publicly available; buyers can use  programs  to  get
24500	best buys and negotiate with sellers obviating some of the effects of
24600	advertising; the rationales of  government  and  other  institutional
24700	policies can be made publicly available and updated.
24800	
24900		Techniques  that  are  being  developed  in  connection  with
25000	research in artificial intelligence to express  in  formal  languages
25100	the  kinds  of  assertions  now  made in natural language.  When such
25200	systems are well understood it should  be  possible  to  express  the
25300	presumptions  of  a policy and prove that the policy will achieve its
25400	goal avoiding undesired side-effects and with some figure  of  merit.
25500	When  such  rationalizations  are  available  to everyone, anyone who
25600	understands the technique will have the  opportunity  to  see  if  an
25700	altered  policy  will  produce a better result and, if so, to propose
25800	it.  Having a proof that a new policy is better will be  a  big  step
25900	towards getting it adopted.
25905	
25910		10. Quite soon we shall be able to have a national  juke  box
25915	using  the  Telephone  Company's  Picturephone circuits for a purpose
25920	they have not yet mentioned.  Namely, a central file  will  have  all
25925	published  recorded  music, and a subscriber will be able to dial any
25930	piece for immediate play.
26000	
26100		The  developments  mentioned  above  differ  greatly in their
26200	difficulty and in the length of time that may be required to overcome
26300	the  difficulties.     My intention is not to predict in the sense of
26400	futurology, but rather to point out that there are  worthwhile  goals
26500	that  technology  can  contribute  to.    Thus,  students who wish to
26600	contribute to the welfare of humanity will probably do more  good  by
26700	becoming   engineers  or  scientists  than  by  becoming  lawyers  or
26800	politicians.
26900	
27000		In  future  articles,  I  hope to discuss whether the natural
27100	resources exist to support the even more  technological  civilization
27200	that I advocate, how we can put more effort into technology that will
27300	really benefit humanity, and also what has to be done to solve a  few
27400	of the specific problems mentioned above.